The Iran war has sent shockwaves through Southeast Asia, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is scrambling to respond. As the region grapples with the fallout, the annual summit in Cebu, Philippines, has taken on a new urgency. The crisis has exposed the fragility of Southeast Asian nations, which are heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil and gas, and the need for a coordinated response to ensure the safety and stability of their citizens and economies.
One of the key challenges facing ASEAN is the potential for large-scale evacuations from the Middle East. With over a million Southeast Asian citizens working and living in the region, the risk of widespread hostilities is a real concern. The draft joint declaration, which outlines a contingency plan, calls for information sharing and coordination with international organizations to ensure the safety of ASEAN nationals. But the question remains: how can ASEAN effectively manage these evacuations if tensions flare up again?
The war has also highlighted the vulnerability of Southeast Asian nations to external shocks. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. warned that recovery could take years, even if the war ends now. The domino effect of oil supply disruptions has affected businesses, work, and daily life, underscoring the need for a more resilient and diversified energy strategy. ASEAN's contingency plan includes the ratification of an agreement for coordinated emergency fuel sharing, planning a regional power grid, and promoting the use of electric vehicles.
However, the summit is not just about the Iran war. ASEAN leaders will also address major regional flash points, including the South China Sea territorial disputes, the five-year civil war in Myanmar, and the recent border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. The negotiations on the proposed non-aggression pact with China have dragged on for over a decade, and ASEAN's effectiveness as a "talk shop" has been called into question. But the region must find a way to project unity and resolve these conflicts, even as it grapples with the immediate crisis.
In my opinion, the Iran war is a wake-up call for ASEAN. It has exposed the region's vulnerabilities and the need for a more proactive and coordinated approach to regional security and economic stability. The contingency plan is a step in the right direction, but it is just the beginning. ASEAN must also address the underlying issues that have contributed to the region's fragility, such as the territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the civil war in Myanmar. Only then can the region truly build resilience and ensure a brighter future for its citizens.
